📄 Climate Change Impact Assessment
Climate Change Impact Assessment — RCP/SSP scenarios, crop model projections, adaptation planning, and mitigation strategies for Indian agriculture.
This lesson builds core elective concepts in BSc Agriculture with practical applications and exam-oriented clarity.
Climate Change Impact Assessment
Climate change poses a fundamental threat to global food security. Crop simulation models, combined with climate projections, provide a scientific framework for assessing impacts and planning adaptation strategies.
Climate Scenarios
Climate projections are based on scenarios that describe future greenhouse gas concentrations:
RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways)
| Scenario | CO2 by 2100 | Temperature Rise | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| RCP 2.6 | 421 ppm | 1.0 degrees C | Strong mitigation |
| RCP 4.5 | 538 ppm | 1.8 degrees C | Moderate mitigation |
| RCP 6.0 | 670 ppm | 2.2 degrees C | Limited mitigation |
| RCP 8.5 | 936 ppm | 3.7 degrees C | Business as usual |
SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)
The newer CMIP6 framework combines SSPs with forcing levels:
- SSP1-2.6 — sustainability pathway with low emissions
- SSP2-4.5 — middle of the road scenario
- SSP3-7.0 — regional rivalry with high emissions
- SSP5-8.5 — fossil fuel-intensive development
Crop Model Projections
Crop models are run with downscaled GCM outputs (from models like HadGEM, MIROC, GFDL) to project future yields:
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This lesson builds core elective concepts in BSc Agriculture with practical applications and exam-oriented clarity.
Climate Change Impact Assessment
Climate change poses a fundamental threat to global food security. Crop simulation models, combined with climate projections, provide a scientific framework for assessing impacts and planning adaptation strategies.
Climate Scenarios
Climate projections are based on scenarios that describe future greenhouse gas concentrations:
RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways)
| Scenario | CO2 by 2100 | Temperature Rise | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| RCP 2.6 | 421 ppm | 1.0 degrees C | Strong mitigation |
| RCP 4.5 | 538 ppm | 1.8 degrees C | Moderate mitigation |
| RCP 6.0 | 670 ppm | 2.2 degrees C | Limited mitigation |
| RCP 8.5 | 936 ppm | 3.7 degrees C | Business as usual |
SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)
The newer CMIP6 framework combines SSPs with forcing levels:
- SSP1-2.6 — sustainability pathway with low emissions
- SSP2-4.5 — middle of the road scenario
- SSP3-7.0 — regional rivalry with high emissions
- SSP5-8.5 — fossil fuel-intensive development
Crop Model Projections
Crop models are run with downscaled GCM outputs (from models like HadGEM, MIROC, GFDL) to project future yields:
- Method — baseline climate (1980-2010) vs. future climate (2030s, 2050s, 2080s) using calibrated crop models
- Ensemble approach — use multiple GCMs and crop models to capture uncertainty range
Projected Impacts on Indian Agriculture
| Crop | Projected Change by 2050 (RCP 4.5) | Key Risk Factor |
|---|---|---|
| Rice | -5 to -15% | Terminal heat stress, water scarcity |
| Wheat | -6 to -23% | Heat stress during grain filling |
| Maize | -10 to -20% | Drought and temperature extremes |
| Soybean | -5 to -12% | Erratic monsoon rainfall |
| Groundnut | -8 to -15% | Terminal drought |
- CO2 fertilisation effect partially offsets yield losses for C3 crops (rice, wheat) — enhanced photosynthesis at elevated CO2
- C4 crops (maize, sorghum) benefit less from CO2 but are more drought-tolerant
- Net effect is still negative due to temperature and rainfall changes overwhelming CO2 benefits
Adaptation Planning
Model-based adaptation strategies evaluated through scenario analysis:
- Shifting sowing dates — advancing wheat sowing by 2-3 weeks to escape terminal heat
- Drought-tolerant varieties — simulated using modified genetic coefficients
- Altered irrigation scheduling — deficit irrigation strategies to cope with reduced water availability
- Crop diversification — replacing high-risk crops with climate-resilient alternatives
- Conservation agriculture — zero-till, residue retention improve soil water storage
Adaptation Effectiveness (Example: Wheat in North India)
| Strategy | Yield Loss Reduction |
|---|---|
| Early sowing (Nov 1 vs Nov 15) | 30-40% of projected loss recovered |
| Heat-tolerant variety | 20-30% recovery |
| Supplemental irrigation | 40-50% recovery |
| Combined package | 70-80% recovery |
Mitigation in Agriculture
Agriculture contributes approximately 14% of global GHG emissions:
- Methane (CH4) — rice paddies, livestock enteric fermentation
- Nitrous oxide (N2O) — fertiliser application, manure management
- Carbon dioxide (CO2) — land use change, soil carbon loss
Mitigation options:
- Alternate wetting and drying (AWD) in rice reduces CH4 by 30-50%
- Precision nitrogen management reduces N2O emissions
- Agroforestry and conservation agriculture sequester soil carbon
- Biochar application locks carbon in stable form
Integrating climate impact assessment with adaptation and mitigation planning ensures that agricultural systems remain productive and sustainable under changing climatic conditions.
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